Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Will Obama be Impeached? (or, the Fallacy of Appeal to Fear)

The past few days has the news from Organized Media as well as from other outlets chattering about the possibility of Obama being impeached.  This chatter is no doubt driven from speculation that he is about to issue an Executive Order where he will grant amnesty to several million illegal aliens, using the excuse that it's necessary to bypass Congress since Congress has not passed the so-called "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" legislation that he so desperately wants.  The arrival within the past months of children from Central America has made headlines for the past few weeks as the Border Patrol has been tasked with dealing with this influx, and that no doubt is catalyzing the situation.

Impeachment talk is also being driven by the decision from House Republicans, led by Speaker Boehner, to start the processing of a lawsuit against President Obama.  Obama seems to be bothered not one whit about the lawsuit and doesn't care if it happens or not.  I don't have any reason to believe that he would care about the verdict going against him, and he certainly seems, by his actions, to be begging for an impeachment.

The thinking among the Democrats is that impeachment proceedings against the President will motivate their base to come out to the polls and vote to protect control of the Senate by the Democrats.  From what I have been reading lately, a lot of incumbent Democrat Senators are worried about being voted out.  From my Qualitative Reasoning and Logic class that I had several years ago at San Jose State, the argument suffers from the Fallacy of Appeal to Fear.  Simply stated, the argument is "you Democrats, you better come out and vote for us because if you don't Obama will be impeached".  Do you see the Appeal to Fear here?  The tactic has been used before, as in by the Republicans in 2006 when they told their voters "you better come out and vote for us because if you don't Nancy Pelosi will become Speaker of the House".  They could not provide a legitimate reason for being allowed to continue controlling the House, so they had to use the Fallacy of Appeal to Fear.

The Republicans lost control of the House in the 2006 midterm, and the Democrats fear losing the Senate in this year's midterm.  Thus like their Republican counterparts, it seems as if they can't come up with any valid reasons to be allowed to retain control of the Senate, and thus the return of the Fallacy of Appeal to Fear.  They are stating in their fundraisers that we'd better vote for them or Obama will be impeached.

In this instance, we have something different here.  I don't think the Republicans wanted Pelosi as Speaker but I do think the Democrats, especially Obama himself, do want the House to take up Articles of Impeachment.  The Republicans seem to be aiding and abetting this by pressing forward with their lawsuit.  However, that should not be taken in any way that the Republicans necessarily want to begin the impeachment process, and here's why.

The Republicans tried that in 1998 against Bill Clinton.  They presented four Articles of Impeachment against a sitting President who won re-election, alleging obstruction of justice and perjury, and succeeded in getting the impeachment part of the process done.  However, impeachment is not the removal of an elected official.  It's more like a criminal indictment, and the actual process of prosecution and conviction take place in another chamber.....the Senate in this case.  The trial takes place in the Senate, and at the end of the trial the vote takes place.  Clinton was impeached, but he was not convicted.....and in case you haven't read the Constitution, you need two thirds of the Senators to vote in favor of conviction before the President or a federal judge can be removed from office.  Clinton of course, was not convicted, and finished out the remainder of his term.  The Republicans lost.

The memory of that loss is still freshly resident within the minds of the Republican Establishment.  They do not see this as a winnable fight, and even if they did, I'm not convinced that they have the political will to do so.  It would be so much easier for them to sit back and do nothing while Obama shreds the Constitution.  Oh, they might issue a token protest here and there, but it's easier to do nothing.  They would gladly allow the President to take us further down the road in this handbasket that we're all in.

Additionally, what if Obama does issue a blanket amnesty to the illegal aliens?  News flash: the Establishment Republicans want amnesty too!  They lost the House in 2006 while trying to be better champions for amnesty than the Democrats were.  They tried again to help the Democrats pass this the next year.  The Establishment Republicans in the Senate helped their fellow Democrats in the Senate pass a bill earlier this year.  So if Obama does go forward with amnesty, guess what?  Those Establishment Republicans who are in favor of this, while knowing all along that the voters don't want it, all know damn well that Obama's fingerprints, and not theirs, will be all over the amnesty.

In a way, it's clever.  Amnesty becomes law of the land by Executive Order, and the Establishment Republicans escape credit for an unpopular idea.  They then become positioned to campaign on the promise of "we'll repeal amnesty", hoping that the electorate will have no memory of the "we'll repeal Obamacare" promise that we heard four years ago.

But let's get back to the impeachment thing for a minute.

I am hearing the argument that Obama will do everything he can to provoke impeachment proceedings against him.  He's going to wait until on or about Labor Day before he does this, which will give him some time to figure out how far he wants to go in his Executive Order.  He knows that no matter how far he goes, there will be no retaliation from the so-called opposition party, but he needs to figure out how far he can go before he acts.  He may not care if he loses the Senate, and he might want to for all we know as that this will give him two more years to pick fights that he knows he will win.

So where's the downside to him in all of this?  None, if he doesn't care about losing the Senate. 

However, in the long term, he may be destroying his own party from within. 

I don't see that bothering him any since he knows his own party will never give him the credit for that. 

He'll still be their Adored Leader.


Sunday, July 27, 2014

Sunday, 7/27/14.

I haven't posted as much as I thought I would be with all this time off.  I almost weighed in with my thoughts about what's going on in Ukraine and with the border, but didn't feel the motivation to do so.  There's some chatter this weekend that the Obama administration is going to issue an executive order tomorrow that will grant refugee status to five million or so who are in this country illegally, and I guess if I want to I can weigh in with my two cents' worth on that.  I have a belief that Obama will do it, though more for ulterior reasons than in helping out a future voting bloc for his party.

As it is, I'm still undergoing this transition of sorts.  I'm finding things to do with the coin collection to help me keep busy, and I'm looking online for work.  I haven't heard of any movement from the Colorado opportunities and so last week's focus was on contracting opportunities in Phoenix. 

If I were to have my druthers, I'd rather work locally, but I'm not sure there's much in the way of work here.  Two of my former co-workers who were forced out/let go months before I was have just now been picked up by another aerospace firm here in Tucson.  Both of them are in contract-to-hire positions and I think I was in the running for one of them.  That one firm was letting go of people last year but with them now having contract openings, it suggests that things are picking up in that segment of the industry.

They also have operations in Phoenix metro, and as of last week I learned that I was on the "short list" of the candidates they are considering.  I would have to temporarily live in Phoenix out of a long term residence inn type hotel, or a one bedroom apartment for six months while Sheila runs things here in Tucson.  We're hoping for Phoenix anyway as that I can come home on some weekends and Sheila can come up on the other weekends.  That would give me time to figure out where in Phoenix I would want to live in case the firm decides to hire me after the contract is finished.  And logistically, it would be easier to move there than to Colorado. 

A lot of people in Tucson hate Phoenix, but I'm not one of them.  Likewise, a lot of people in Phoenix hate Tucson, but I think the hate that Tucson has for Phoenix is borderline vitriolic while the Phoenicians tend to look down their noses at Tucson and leave it at that.  As far as I'm concerned, I've really got better ways to expend energy than to hate a city that's a two to three hour drive away and a city that I don't pass through all that often.  I mean, they're there, they're out of sight, they're some distance away.......why waste mental energy hating them?

As for Tucson, I really enjoyed many of my years here, but if an offer were to come from Phoenix I'd move there in a minute.  The City Council has been suffering from an anti-business attitude for several years and it's getting to where the high tech firms don't want to come here.  California has its Silicon Valley and Arizona has its Silicon Desert.  Phoenix is adding jobs while Tucson is chasing them away.  Why not move to Phoenix?

One drawback to Phoenix is the heat.  It's worse there than it is here.   The Valley of the Sun is roughly 1200 feet above sea level while Tucson is roughly 2500.  Phoenix also doesn't get as much rain, so the desert looks a little more desolate.

As for positives, it's closer to Flagstaff, Roosevelt Lake, the Grand Canyon, and Prescott.  And, they've got jobs.  Not to mention I have friends up there already.

If a contract position should be offered me from up there, I won't waste very much time in signing. 

That said, I'll still look around here.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

45 Years Ago Today......

Forty-five years ago today I stood on the banks of the Indian River (not technically a river, but a lagoon) and watched the liftoff of Apollo 11, carrying three astronauts to the moon.  It was a clear beautiful morning and the liftoff proceeded without a hitch.  The entire family was there, as were several thousand spectators.  We had a clear view of the Saturn V.  It was far enough away that the noise of the liftoff took several seconds to get to us.

We watched it climb skyward.  We were seeing proof of what a great nation America was.  We were doing something then that no one else had ever done before, and that no one else, at that time, could do.  Oh, you might say that the Soviets could have done that too, and if they had made that a priority they might have done it.....but some 45 years later we are still the only nation who ever did it.

The space program at that time, especially where we lived, was a very big thing back then.  Many of us schoolchildren wanted to be astronauts when we grew up.  We figured that we would be going to Mars, and having manned space voyages to other places in the solar system.  Four days later, in the evening, millions of us gathered around television sets worldwide so that we could see live, the images of the greatest human achievement ever undertaken.

As I reminisce on these events, I think about where we are going as a nation, and wondering, what happened?  I ask myself, are the schoolchildren even taught any more that this nation placed several men on the moon, and then brought them all back alive?  Are they even aware that we did this?

Think about it.  This was an achievement that eclipsed the first flight of the Wright brothers, although that event in and of itself started a sequence of events that got us to the moon.  Bigger and better airplanes were designed and built, and we climbed higher and higher, reaching for the moon.  Nowadays, it seems as if nothing ever happened.

I think the youth of today can tell you all about Justin Bieber and explain to you what "twerking" is.  They can tell you how many friends they have on Facebook and they can explain to you how to "tweet" and what the Kardashians are up to.  But can they tell you who Wilbur and Orville Wright was, and what they did?  Do they even know that Neil Armstrong actually existed, and what he did?

It's a sad observation that I make that American exceptionalism is ill regarded by many of our nation's so-called leaders.  Yes, I get that there are other nations on the planet and that many of them have made contributions that continue to this day, to benefit the very nation that I live in.  I really don't see anything wrong with national pride, be it whether you're from Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, England......or even the US of A. 

I just don't understand why more people aren't reflecting on the events of 1969, and why we aren't doing great things any more.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

A Move to Colorado?

Yesterday I got an email from Chip regarding employment opportunities at his employer (and my former employer) in Colorado.  Seems as if they're having trouble filling some positions there, and it's gotten to the point to where corporate management is offering referral bonuses to their employees if those they refer get hired.  We talked on the phone some last night, and after discussing this with Sheila I decided to pull that trigger.

Chip found eleven openings which he thought I would be suited for.  I agreed with most of them, and applied for all, via his referral.  I also found some others which I think would be a good fit.  All of these are in satellite engineering, and in my career the most fun I ever had was in being a satellite engineer.  I recall in this blog, somewhere in the past, I wouldn't mind being a satellite engineer again if I could.

I've got some work to do this weekend, identifying those other openings I could be a fit for.  With a holiday weekend, I don't see much happening.  I'll have to wait until Chip is back at work on Monday so that he can refer me for those other positions.

Chip and I have a friendship that has gone back for almost 30 years.  He was a co-worker in my very first assignment back at that firm, and one real good guy to work with too.  We discovered a lot of common interests and in the fall of 1986 both of us took up guitar playing and songwriting, and we even went on to form a garage band.  We both thought it would be neat if we could break the Bay Area club scene with our original songs, but as it is we kept the day jobs.  He still practices his guitar quite a bit, and me, well you would think I would have picked it up a few times this week but I've been busy trying to sort out my future.

I sometimes think about the what ifs.  What if some of our songs had made it?  What if we had suddenly emerged out of nowhere with our band and our songs?  What if we had recorded a couple of albums?

Knowing what I now know about the rock and roll business, I can tell you that I am glad that we did *NOT* make it.  This is based upon a lot of my inside knowledge of what went on behind the scenes with the Guess Who and Bachman-Turner Overdrive....knowledge that wasn't readily available in 1986.

Those guys made sacrifices that most folks are incapable of imagining.  Lots of broken promises, backstabbing, failed marriages, deals gone bad........I look at all of that and I tell myself I'm glad I wasn't part of that.  I guess if we had made it we'd now be playing the county fair and casino circuit, and not having a market for any new product since the record company executives are signing other bands and FM radio has gone "corporate", for lack of a better term. 

Anyway.....getting back to my situation, and Colorado.

I'd be up for a move to the Rocky Mountain State.  It's something I once considered in the early 1990s when I thought Colorado Springs would be a great place to live.  I got to go there in 1994 to do a satellite test that had me out there for eight days, which gave me a chance to check the place out.

The openings though are in Denver metro.  I don't particularly like the politics of Denver and the politics of Colorado.  But there's lots of great scenery, and lots of hunting, hiking and fishing.  I don't like cold weather very much but it has been so miserably hot here in Tucson as of late and I'm thinking that my tolerance of it just might be reaching its end.

Sheila would go for Colorado in a minute.  She would also be OK with the Pacific Northwest (and I like Portland) but right now Colorado is sounding very good. 

Meantime, I am pursuing contracting opportunities in Phoenix and Tucson, as well as direct hire opportunities in Phoenix.  I know Phoenix is always a few degrees hotter than here but I have some friends there, and a move there would be doable as well.

But I think I'll see what's shakin' in Denver.